I was out in the garden, smoking an unfiltered Camel and sipping a cup of coffee, black. On the brick path that slips under the tree you can walk through, the beep of the iPhone reminded me that another GOP debate was on in an hour. I don't know that I can focus again on another GOP round of posture and redundancy. But it was cold out there, and the nasturtiums on the north side of the garden have come in early this year. So I came in from the cold and am trying another peek at these god-awful candidates.
My campaign trail cohort Phil Jennerjahn got roughed up this weekend. Not only did Mittens become the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination--Phil is no Romney fan--but he flew to Green Bay only to watch his beloved Packers not show up for the game themselves. Might not one but two seasons end for him tonight, as Romney secures the nomination with a death-grip?
About Mitt Romney, I still don't have much to say. I have noticed that he is now appealing to 35% of all Republicans nationwide, rather than 25%, and that this has happened even before Huntsman's withdrawal today. That is much better but still, to my mind, a dangerous enthusiasm cap. It leaves wide open, at least to my mind, a challenge from the right should Santorum or Gingrich fail to captivate more hearts.
Really, to my mind again, there are not one but three Republican parties. There is the party of doctrinaire conservatives, who have not been a real factor since last summer. There is the party of Tea, and you can lump all the evangelicals into that one. And there is the party of liberty, of Ron Paul presently but this is the Reagan Democrat legacy, and I think that these just might be the most fractious group of all. A ticket is only two people--it can only serve two factions, even as candidates can only appeal to two of three.
Think about it: the people who love Paul love him for his liberty but also he has some doctrinaire conservative appeal--and he has no appeal whatsoever to evangelicals. Romney, again dangerously, does not belong to any one of these three groups--all of them, every one of the three, have sizeable numbers of adherents who cannot stand him. Santorum is in the party of Tea, and has a toe in the conservative bathwater, but he has no appeal to the liberty-loving libertarian side of the party, and Reagan Democrat appeal only among Catholics. Gingrich...oddly, Gingrich is a lot like Romney, despised by factions nearly across the board. It's a tough row to hoe for the GOP this time around.
6:00 An hour and forty-five minutes? Oh dear...
6:09 Gingrich notes Massachusetts did not grow jobs with Romney at the helm.
6:09 Romney mentions organizing Salt Lake City Olympics again. I wouldn't. Just because of California's old Governor, Ueberroth.
6:17: Paul is always most charming when he attacks. He gets away with his attacks. Santorum is wearing his attacks, ha ha.
6:20 Santorum making a pretty good point at Romney's expense. Actually two good points. Definitely cornered Romney on restoring voting rights.
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| Cold busted by The Twitter. Screengrab: Valley Doll. |
6:28: At first break, FOX commentators are fairing most poorly, followed by Romney, followed, surprisingly by Nate Silver, who distinguished between strategy and tactics. It's a debate, there's no chance for evaluating strategy after half an hour.
6:31 Someone on Twitter points out huge Freudian slip by Romney: did he really say that felons shouldn't be allowed to vote after they leave office? Looking forward to revisiting that one.
6:33 Perry sticking with states rights. That's good, they all should be. So far, only Perry though. The rest of them could be talking to Cooper Union.
6:46 Is Romney alienating Latinos? This is why all of a sudden Romney looks good as the nominee--to Democrats. He is saying nothing appealing to immigrants right now. Not many in the audience, one sees.
6:53 Newt judges himself inoffensive to blacks. Not backing down off of statements about getting jobs as janitors. Another way to play to the GOP in South Carolina in particular.
6:58 Newt loves to insinuate people on food stamps who don't work janitorial jobs are lazy. You don't think this is color coded, do you?
7:09 Warmonger segment. Everyone but Paul participates. Paul cites Golden Rule, Christians in audience want more crucifixions.
7:32 Santorum actually wants to end an entitlement, social security, to people who make over a million a year. A good step, but merely a step. Romney sides with Santorum? Can't lose, if he's siding with one or another. Inopportune dust-up between Santorum and Grinch.
7:41 Break observation #1: Debate got so heated and challengers so carried away with selves that challengers forgot to attack Romney for a long time.
7:42: Break observation #2: Way harder to sneak off and mix and pour a pink gin with cohort Phil stuck out of state and not online.
7:47 SuperPAC blather. Yawn. Nothing, neither way.
Final observations: I don't believe anything good happened for Romney, and certainly nothing bad enough happened for him to lose the state. I'll expect him to lose about seven points off of current polling. I'd expect Newt to draft up five points, and Santorum, Perry and Paul all a few points each by Saturday. Now what? Not enough for the challengers, as Romney takes a knee.
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